Energy Transitions Post–Russia–Ukraine War: Challenges and Policy Implications in Germany and Italy

Abstract

In the pursuit of global net-zero emissions by 2050, the Russia–Ukraine War emerges as a potential disruptor, challenging progress toward this critical objective. We explore the repercussions of the conflict on the European Union’s (EU) initial energy transition goals, with a keen focus on electricity generation. To analyze projections for coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, and renewables in Germany and Italy over the period of 2023 and 2027, we employ the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Our findings from Germany presented a contrast with those from Italy, influenced by the impact of the onset of the war. The observed and anticipated shifts in Germany’s energy landscape, especially the notable decline in nuclear power generation and the simultaneous increase in coal usage, present considerable obstacles to attaining carbon neutrality. Italy’s resilient energy shifts, marked by hydropower fluctuations and increased renewable energy, suggest continued measures for emission reduction. This study not only identifies contrasting energy challenges but also proposes nuanced policy implications tailored to each country’s context, providing valuable insights for navigating the complex path toward sustainable and resilient carbon neutrality amidst geopolitical uncertainties.