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China’s Slowdown

Eichengreen, Barry

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Abstract

This paper evaluates explanations for China’s growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi’s centralization of political power and anti-corruption campaign, and U.S. export controls. Sustaining growth in the longer term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household consumption playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget constraints of regional and local governments and restructuring of the nonperforming debts of property and construction companies.

Issue Date
2024-02-28
Publisher
Korea Development Institute
DOI
https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2024.46.1.1
Journal Title
KDI Journal of Economic Policy
Start Page
1
End Page
19
ISBN
KDI Journal of Economic Policy, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 1-19
Language
eng
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