Political and economic legacy of conflict

Abstract

Chapter 1: Terrorism, Creativity and Economic Resilience: Natural Experiment from the Boston Marathon bombing. The profound impact of terrorism on individual well-being and economic prospects is widely acknowledged. However, the research landscape lacks an exploration of creativity’s potential role in mitigating the repercussions of traumatic events despite established connections between social capital, positive emotions, and post-traumatic recovery. This study bridges this gap by employing the Unexpected Event during Survey Design (UESD) method and counterfactual mediation analysis to probe the causal relationship between terrorism, creativity, and income. Drawing from data obtained from the European Social Survey (ESS round 6), focusing on the high-profile event of the Boston Marathon bombing on April 15, 2013, I uncover that terrorism originating in the United States negatively impacts European income while concurrently stimulating creativity. Specifically, creativity causally mediates 5-7 percent of the adverse income impact resulting from the Boston Marathon bombing. This finding underscores the transformative potential of creativity in cultivating resilience among individuals and communities grappling with the aftermath of terrorism.

Chapter 2:Preference for Democracy in Conflict-Affected Africa Coauthored with Chysostomos Tabakis Conflicts have a significant impact on political institutions and regime change. Voters’ preferences regarding domestic regime types tend to shift, with a greater emphasis on security and a tendency to hold leaders accountable for their failure to provide it. Using Afrobarometer data(Round 7) and ACLED, this study finds that conflict boosts the preference for democracy in Africa. In democracies, although there is no evidence that people support authoritarian institutions following a conflict, in hybrid/authoritarian regimes, voters reject authoritarianism and endorse democracy. Moreover, riots have the strongest effect on people’s desire for democracy, mainly in Africa and the sub-sample of authoritarian countries in Africa. Citizens need a lawful environment to voice their discontent with their leaders’ actions. In sum, although conflict can threaten democracy, it can also provide an opportunity for democratic change in authoritarian nations.

Chapter 3: Riots and Trust in the Police:Natural Experiment using Riots in Africa. Extensive studies have investigated the relationship between citizens and the police, specifically the impact of police’s misconduct on public trust in the police. However, there is a dwarf of studies investigating how exposure to riots affects public trust in the police, and through the lens of the police’s role in restoring and maintaining social order and safety. This study shifts the focus from solely analyzing trust-related police misconduct to the broader dynamics of trust-related riots, regardless of their sources. Analyzing data from Afrobarometer and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project and using a spatial difference-in-difference, I investigate the impact of exposure to riots in shaping public trust in the police, and the underlying mechanism. The results show that exposure to riots induce a positive change in public trust in the police, primarily driven by positive perceptions of police behavior and effective task performance. Additionally, trust increases among citizens who perceive their ethnic group as not facing discrimination, and communities with strong social bonds rebuild trust more effectively. These findings emphasize the post-riot period as an opportunity for reforms that address public concerns, enhance police efficiency, and foster greater confidence between the police and communities.