The Impact of rainfall shock on agricultural production and household welfare

Abstract

In rural economies, how do weather extremes affect agricultural production and household welfare? Using Cote d’Ivoire’s Harmonized Survey of Household Living Conditions 2018-2019 data conducted by the Institut National de la Statistique (2018), I investigated how households in rural zones that entirely depend on rainfall for their agricultural activities are affected. Using an OLS model, I estimate the effect of self-reported rainfall shock on household’s main crops (rice, maize, yam) production and their welfare in rural Cote d’Ivoire. The result from the analysis shows that households that reported weather shock observe a decrease of 25% and 18% in yam and rice production, 8% and 3.2% in non-food consumption and consumption expenditure compared to the household that did not face rainfall shock. If nothing is done household that undergo weather shock could see their ability to send their children to school or subscribe to healthcare service reduce. These results could also lead children of those households drop from school and increase in farming works or other activities. This study contributes to the few literatures that used self-reported weather shock to assess household’s level of poverty in rural zones.