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The Determinants of public debt in the Gambia

an autoregressive redistributed lag (ARDL) bound cointegration technique

JARJU, Saikouna E

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Abstract

With rising public debt levels in developing and middle income countries and the debt crises that has strucked most of the advanced economies, there has been a lot of scholarly and policy debates about the factors that determines the public debt level of a country. This paper examines the impact of selected macroeconomic variables as well as a governance indicator (government effectiveness variable) in determining the public debt level of The Gambia. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was employed to establish the short-run and long-run impact of the selected variables on public debt. The study reveals that trade openness and gross fixed capital formation have an increasing impact on public debt in the long-run. GDP growth, official exchange rate, and the government effectiveness variables on the other hand have a decreasing effect on public debt levels in the long-run. However, none of the variables show a significant relationship with public debt of levels of The Gambia in the short-run.

Advisors
Cho, Dongchul
Department
KDI School, Master of Public Policy
Issue Date
2021
Publisher
KDI School
Description
Thesis(Master) -- KDI School: Master of Public Policy, 2021
Keywords
Debts, Public--Gambia
Contents
1. Introduction

2. Analysis of The Gambia’s Public Debt Portfolio

3. Literature Review

4. Methodology and Data  

5. Analysis of Results and Discussion

6. Conclusion
Pages
44 p
URI
https://archives.kdischool.ac.kr/handle/11125/42922
Type
Thesis
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