Sino-American Cooperation and The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: A Reassessment

Abstract

There is near-consensus that China’s fears about the potential ramifications of regime collapse in North Korea are behind its reluctance to apply measures that could halt their nuclear program. This paper argues that if uncertainty over the costs of North Korean collapse prevent cooperation between China and the US on North Korea’s nuclear program, reducing that uncertainty is the most direct, and perhaps effective, way to enhance Sino-American cooperation on the issue. It proposes an understanding between the US and China on a post-Kim regime Korea as the means to reduce that uncertainty. The benefits and possible elements of such an agreement as well as its obstacles are analyzed.