The Political economy of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This study provides an empirical investigation of the political and economic determinants of terrorism at a regional level. In contrast to previous studies that investigate the subject on a national or global scale, the study carves out the Horn of Africa as a regional security complex worthy of investigation. The study employs Global Terrorism Index that captures both domestic and transnational terrorism; and also macroeconomic and institutional control variables from the seven countries that comprise the Horn of Africa for the period 2002-2013. South Sudan is excluded, for it does not fit the time scale under study. Panel Unobserved Effects Model is run to report robust results and policy implications. Despite the normal rhetoric, the results do not provide evidence that poor conditions of the region are positively correlated with increase in terrorism. However, state political repression is shown to explain the high levels of terrorism in the region. State repression suggest that the populace political grievances and need for political freedom encourage and motivate terrorists in the region. They see their acts as being justifiable when they target political institutions that restrict them to air their grievances peacefully or torture and discriminate them along tribal and religious lines. Hence, state repression produces unintended consequences by hardening the society, and may inadvertently lead to more radicalization. Therefore, this study disputes the poverty thesis and supports Samuel Huntington’s argument that countries are not politically unstable because they are poor, and that economic development and political stability are two independent goals and therefore it does not mean that progress in one leads to progress toward the other, and vice versa.