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The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

Sohn, Wook / Byeongmook Sung(Author)

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Abstract

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatilities of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates.

Issue Date
2013-12
Publisher
Korea Development Institute
Contents
Preface
Summary

CHAPTER 1
Introduction

CHAPTER 2
Pattern of Central Bank Rate Changes

CHAPTER 3
Central Banks’ Interest Rates and Financial Market Variables

CHAPTER 4
Association of the Pattern of a Central Bank’s Rate Changes and Its Contribution to Forecast Error Variance of Financial Market Variables

CHAPTER 5
Association of the Pattern of a Central Bank’s Rate Changes and the Movement of the Financial Market Variables

CHAPTER 6
Conclusion

References
Pages
33
Series Title
KDI Policy Study 2013-01
URI
https://archives.kdischool.ac.kr/handle/11125/30885
URL
http://kdi.re.kr/research/subjects_view.jsp?pub_no=13403
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