KDI 경제전망, 2011 상반기

유가 상승에 따른 경제적 부담 및 변화 추이


  • 506 ITEM VIEW

□ 우리 경제는 견실한 수출 증가와 양호한 내수를 기반으로 잠재성장률 수준의 성장세를 유지할 것으로 전망됨.
2011년에 4.2%, 2012년에 4.3%의 성장률을 기록할 것으로 예상됨.
소비자물가는 2011년 4.1%의 높은 상승률을 기록하고, 2012년에는 3.3%의 상승률을 기록할 전망
경상수지는 내수 증가, 원화가치 강세, 국제유가 상승 등을 반영하여 흑자폭

□ The Korean economy is forecast to grow at a pace close to the potential growth rate, supported by the steady improvement in exports and domestic demand.
Korea's GDP growth rate is expected to record 4.2% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012.
CPI growth is expected to rise high to 4.1% in 2011 and decrease to 3.3% in 2012.
The current account surplus is expected to decrease from $11.2 billion in 2011 to $8.2 billion in 2012, reflecting the rising domestic demand, the strong trend of the Korean won, and the soaring international oil prices.

Ⅰ. Current Economic Conditions

□ After the rapid recovery from the global financial crisis, the Korean economy is normalizing and accordingly, the growth pace is adjusting close to the potential growth rate.
Recovering fast from the financial crisis, the Korean economy registered a growth high growth rate of 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2010, and then gradually normalized with a growth rate of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011.
- Korea's potential growth rate was estimated to be at a low to mid 4% level before the global financial crisis and this potential growth rate still holds, considering the causes of the recent crisis and Korea's response to the crisis.
The production in both the mining & manufacturing and service industries recently show signs of slight moderation in the adjustment process of the rapid upward trend since the second quarter of 2010.
Production․inventory cycle appears to gradually return to the normal business cycle of the pre-crisis period, as the growth in inventory declines while the growth in the mining & manufacturing production is being maintained.
□ Exports continue a steady upward trend while domestic demand generally maintains a modest pace.
Private consumption continues to rise at a moderate pace, as household incomes rises due to the improvement in employment conditions.
- In 2011, household income is projected to grow steadily, as the proportion of labor income (the salary payment of employees against GDP) recovers at a gradual pace after a sharp fall in 2010.
Equipment investment maintains a favorable upward trend, but investment in construction appears to remain weak even up until recently with a delay in its recovery.
Meanwhile, exports continue a steady growth pace, as emerging market economies sustain the growth momentum and advanced economies are gradually improving.
□ Employment appears to improve, influenced by the continuing growth of exports and domestic demand.
Employment growth has been sustained with approximately 400,000 persons since the mid 2010, mainly supported by the private sector. Influenced by growing employment possibilities, the labor force participation rate has risen.
The rise in employment is increasingly evident particularly in the manufacturing industry and among regular workers, which indicates improvement in the quality of employment.
□ CPI continues to rise at a high rate, influenced by the demand-side factors as well as the supply-side factors.
CPI inflation, which was mainly triggered by the supply-side factors, such as the agricultural, livestock and marine products and international raw materials, combined with the aggregate demand pressure, which has been accumulated during the economic recovery process, spread to the service industry.
As the high inflation raises the expectation for price hikes, there are concerns of continuing inflation due to a vicious cycle of the 'price-wage spiral.'
- The rate of wage growth, which in the past was close to the nominal economic growth rate, fell much lower, in relative term after the financial crisis.
- As the Demand for salary increase is expected due to the improved corporate performance and employment conditions along with the rising expectation of inflation, which w

Issue Date
제 2 부 경제현안 분석

 Ⅲ. 유가 상승에 따른 경제적 부담 및 변화 추이
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