실물지표에 의한 북한의 GNP 추정(實物指標에 의한 北韓의 GNP 推定)

Abstract

The most difficult problem one faces in estimating North Korea's GNP is the lack of basic national income data. In addition, there is no appropriate foreign exchange rate available to convert North Korea's GNP to dollar values. The physical indicators method is particularly useful in estimating North Korean GNP because it requires only a modest amount of data and obtains dollar GNP directly by applying a relationship between physical indicators and GNP, which is estimated from reference countries, to physical indicators of North Korea. The estimated result of North Korean GNP in 1990 is 2 7.1 billion dollars and per capita GNP 1,268 dollars. The trade participation ratio (Trade/GNP) implied by the GNP estimate was plausible and so was the ratio of fiscal expenditure to GNP. This paper examined the physical indicators method's logic, the quality of the North Korean data that was used in the estimation, and the plausibility of estimation result. Relatively simple data requirement, comparative ease of computation and plausible estimation results suggest that use of physical indicators method could enhance the reliability of North Korean GNP estimate.