Contents

Alternative Projection of the World Energy Consumption-in Comparison with the 2010 International Energy Outlook

Chang, Yusang / Lee, Jinsoo / Yoon, Hyerim

Abstract

A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for eight countries-U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. We find that the EIA's projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Issue Date
2012-11
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Keywords
EXPERIENCE CURVES; LEARNING-CURVE; TECHNOLOGIES
Citation
ENERGY POLICY, v.50, pp.154 - 160, 2012
DOI
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.059
Journal Title
ENERGY POLICY
Start Page
154
End Page
160
ISSN
0301-4215
Language
English
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