Can we predict long-term future crime rates? A projection of crime rates through 2030 for individual states in the USA

Abstract

Can we predict long-term crime rates? The overall result of many long-term projections has been described as notoriously poor. Therefore, more research efforts are called for by trying out several new and different methodologies. In this paper, we offer the use of simple experience curve models as an alternative forecasting method. We use the experience curve models to project total crime and violent crime rates in 2030 for 50 individual states, including Washington DC, in the USA. The results are encouraging in that the projection models developed from historical data for respective states show, in general, high values of R2 over .85. Our projected crime rates show both increasing trends as well as declining trends compared to 2010. A large variation among individual states is due to highly variable experience curve slopes we estimated across respective states.