Contents

Inference and Forecasting Based on the Phillips Curve

Kun Ho, Kim / Suna, Park

DC Field Value Language
dc.contributor.authorKun Ho, Kim-
dc.contributor.authorSuna, Park-
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-21T01:11:02Z-
dc.date.available2016-09-21T01:11:02Z-
dc.date.issued2016-05-31-
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.kdi.re.kr/research/development_view.jsp?pub_no=14783&art_no=2746-
dc.identifier.urihttps://archives.kdischool.ac.kr/handle/11125/19743-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we conduct uniform inference of two widely used versions of the Phillips curve, specifically the random-walk Phillips curve and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). For both specifications, we propose a potentially time-varying natural unemployment (NAIRU) to address the uncertainty surrounding the inflation-unemployment trade-off. The inference is conducted through the construction of what is known as the uniform confidence band (UCB). The proposed methodology is then applied to point-ahead inflation forecasting for the Korean economy. This paper finds that the forecasts can benefit from conducting UCB-based inference and that the inference results have important policy implications.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectTime-varying NAIRUen_US
dc.subjectRandom-walk Phillips curveen_US
dc.subjectNew-Keynesian Phillips curveen_US
dc.subjectUniform confidence banden_US
dc.subjectModel validationen_US
dc.subjectInflation forecastingen_US
dc.titleInference and Forecasting Based on the Phillips Curveen_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2016.38.2.1-
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