Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?
- Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?
- Chang, Yu Sang; Choi, Changyong
- Projection of crime rates; total crime rates; violent crime rates; classical experience curve; kinked experience curves; kinked slope; kinked year
- Issue Date
- Series/Report no.
- KDI Working Paper Series;WP13-04
- Can we predict long-term crime rates? In this paper, we offer the use of simple experience
curve models as an alternative forecasting method. We use the experience curve models to
project total crime and violent crime rates in 2030 for 50 individual states and Washington
D.C. in the United States.
Results are encouraging in that projection models developed from historical data for
respective states show, in general, high values of R2 over .85. Our projected crime rates show
both increasing trends as well as declining trends compared to 2010. A large variation among
individual states is due to highly variable experience curve slopes we estimated across
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