Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?

Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?
Chang, Yu SangChoi, Changyong
Projection of crime rates; total crime rates; violent crime rates; classical experience curve; kinked experience curves; kinked slope; kinked year
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KDI Working Paper Series;WP13-04
Can we predict long-term crime rates? In this paper, we offer the use of simple experience curve models as an alternative forecasting method. We use the experience curve models to project total crime and violent crime rates in 2030 for 50 individual states and Washington D.C. in the United States. Results are encouraging in that projection models developed from historical data for respective states show, in general, high values of R2 over .85. Our projected crime rates show both increasing trends as well as declining trends compared to 2010. A large variation among individual states is due to highly variable experience curve slopes we estimated across respective states.
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