Will the Stop TB Partnership Targets on TB Control be Realized on Schedule?
- Will the Stop TB Partnership Targets on TB Control be Realized on Schedule?
- Chang, Yu Sang; Choi, Changyong; Yoon, Jae Hee
- Tuberculosis(TB); Stop TB Partnership; classical experience curve; kinked experience curve; projection methodology
- Issue Date
- Series/Report no.
- KDI Working Paper Series;WP13-03
- According to the WHO, there were an estimated 8.7 million new cases of TB and 1.4 million
people died from TB in 2011. WHO declared TB as a global emergency in 1993 and currently
recommend the approach developed by the Stop TB Partnership. Targets set by the Partnership
are as follows: by 2015, reduce prevalence and death rates by 50%, compared with their levels
in 1990, and 2) by 2050, eliminate TB as a public health problem, defined as a global incidence
of active TB of less than one case per 1 million population per year. The basic objective of this
study is to test whether these targets will be realized on schedule. We have selected 22 so-called
high-burden countries that account for over 80% of the world’s TB cases. For each country, we
have developed a forecasting model based on experience curve for incidence, prevalence and
mortality rate. After projecting the future rates for 2015 and 2050, we compare our projections
with the future targets set by the Partnership.
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