Will the Stop TB Partnership Targets on TB Control be Realized on Schedule?

Will the Stop TB Partnership Targets on TB Control be Realized on Schedule?
Chang, Yu SangChoi, ChangyongYoon, Jae Hee
Tuberculosis(TB); Stop TB Partnership; classical experience curve; kinked experience curve; projection methodology
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KDI Working Paper Series;WP13-03
According to the WHO, there were an estimated 8.7 million new cases of TB and 1.4 million people died from TB in 2011. WHO declared TB as a global emergency in 1993 and currently recommend the approach developed by the Stop TB Partnership. Targets set by the Partnership are as follows: by 2015, reduce prevalence and death rates by 50%, compared with their levels in 1990, and 2) by 2050, eliminate TB as a public health problem, defined as a global incidence of active TB of less than one case per 1 million population per year. The basic objective of this study is to test whether these targets will be realized on schedule. We have selected 22 so-called high-burden countries that account for over 80% of the world’s TB cases. For each country, we have developed a forecasting model based on experience curve for incidence, prevalence and mortality rate. After projecting the future rates for 2015 and 2050, we compare our projections with the future targets set by the Partnership.
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