Alternative Projection of World Energy Consumption Compared to the 2010 International Energy Outlook

Title
Alternative Projection of World Energy Consumption Compared to the 2010 International Energy Outlook
Authors
Chang, Yu-SangLee, Jinsoo
Keywords
Energy Consumption; Experience Model
Issue Date
2012-06
Series/Report no.
KDI Working Paper Series;WP12-08
Abstract
A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for eight countries - the U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. We find that the EIA’s projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data.
URI
http://archives.kdischool.ac.kr/handle/11125/17321
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