Alternative Projection of World Energy Consumption Compared to the 2010 International Energy Outlook
- Alternative Projection of World Energy Consumption Compared to the 2010 International Energy Outlook
- Chang, Yu-Sang; Lee, Jinsoo
- Energy Consumption; Experience Model
- Issue Date
- Series/Report no.
- KDI Working Paper Series;WP12-08
- A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic,
energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to
evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy
consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We
compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
for eight countries - the U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico.
We find that the EIA’s projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India,
Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions
which cannot be rationalized by historical data.
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